The research framework
Demand
Population growth, household formation, jobs, incomes, migration, tertiary education, lifestyle demand and buyer depth.
Supply
Building approvals, development pipeline, vacant land, apartment pipeline, planning rules and competing stock.
Affordability
Purchase price relative to local incomes, rent-to-price relationships and the range of owner-occupier buyers.
Liquidity
Sales volumes, days on market, vendor discounting and the depth of the resale market.
Employment matters
A market supported by diverse employment can be more resilient than one dependent on a single employer or commodity cycle. We look at the composition of employment, not only the unemployment rate.
Infrastructure: announced is not the same as delivered
Large projects can support demand, but investors should distinguish funded and under-construction projects from early proposals. Timing, distance and actual employment effects matter.
Rental demand
Vacancy rates, advertised rents and days to lease can help identify tenant conditions. These figures should be read alongside new dwelling supply and local tenant demographics.
Price movement
Recent growth is evidence of what has happened, not proof of what will happen. We use price trends as one input and avoid selecting an area simply because it has recently been the strongest performer.
Property-level evidence
Even in a strong market, an individual property can underperform if it is poorly located, overpriced, expensive to hold or difficult to resell.